← Glossary

Expected return

Expected return is the single annual growth rate the deterministic projection compounds every year, and the anchor around which the Monte Carlo simulation's historical sampling varies. This product does not tell you what expected return to assume; it projects forward whatever figure you enter, which is why the Monte Carlo p10/p50/p90 bands matter — a single expected-return assumption is one guess among a wide range of possible outcomes.

This explains what expected return measures. It isn't investment advice — see the disclaimer.